Group G is the story of a final chance. Belgium has spent a decade among the world’s best squads without winning anything. De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Courtois will arrive at the 2026 World Cup knowing this is probably their last opportunity to win a major trophy. But the group offers no free passage: Egypt brings Mohamed Salah, Iran has a world-class defensive system, and New Zealand debuts with nothing-to-lose mentality.
The pressure is on Belgium. And pressure is where this generation has historically failed.
Belgium: the golden generation in overtime
The Belgian golden generation has produced third place in Russia 2018, quarterfinals at Euro 2020, and a disappointing group-stage exit at Qatar 2022. The pattern is clear: each tournament they perform a little worse. Domenico Rudi García attempts to rejuvenate the squad without losing veteran stars, but the balance is delicate.
De Bruyne remains the tournament’s best passer. Lukaku is a proven World Cup scorer. Courtois provides security in goal. But the legs no longer respond like in 2018, and the new generation (Doku, Trossard, Onana) still hasn’t proven in a final tournament they can carry the team’s weight.
Tactical analysis by nation
Belgium: talent needing efficiency
Rudi García has implemented a more pragmatic 4-2-3-1 than Martínez’s previous systems. Less long possession, more verticality with De Bruyne distributing and Doku exploiting the wings. Lukaku as a fixed reference awaiting crosses and through balls.
The problem is the midfield when De Bruyne isn’t at his best: creativity drops dramatically. Defense has improved under Rudi García but remains vulnerable in rapid transitions.
Tactical key: Belgium qualifies if De Bruyne controls matches and Lukaku converts chances. If both falter on the same matchday, any group rival can spring a surprise.
Egypt: Salah’s first and final World Cup
Mohamed Salah arrives at the 2026 World Cup at age 34. It’s probably his only World Cup. Individual motivation is maximum, and Salah in elimination mode is one of the planet’s most decisive players.
The Egyptian system is a 4-3-3 with Salah cutting in from the right toward the center, replicating his Liverpool role. The team is defensively organized but lacks the squad depth of group European nations.
Tactical key: Egypt depends on Salah more than any other tournament team depends on a single player. If Salah is in form, Egypt can beat Belgium. If not, the team lacks an offensive plan B.
Iran: the Team Melli wall
Iran is one of the tournament’s most difficult squads to beat. The Iranian defensive system—a compact 5-3-2 yielding possession while seeking the counter—has proven effective against top-tier rivals. At Qatar 2022, Iran lost narrowly to England and the USA, and beat Wales.
Mehdi Taremi as the reference forward brings European experience. Azmoun complements with pace. The team’s strength is that it never becomes tactically disorganized.
Tactical key: Iran doesn’t win through talent; it wins through structure. If the opponent can’t find a way to break their low block, Iran escapes with a draw or steals the match on the counter.
New Zealand: Oceania’s surprise
New Zealand qualifies to the World Cup with the hopes of a nation where rugby dominates. The squad has players with A-League experience and lower-league European club experience. Not a contender for qualification, but can complicate a match if the favorite gets careless.
An 5-4-1 ultra-defensive formation will be the base. Every point will be a success.
Tactical key: New Zealand only has chances if the rival becomes disorganized and the match reaches the final 20 minutes tight. If they concede an early goal, the plan collapses.
xG projections and expected results
| Match | Projected xG | Most Likely Result |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs New Zealand (J1) | BEL 2.5 — NZL 0.4 | Belgium wins 3-0 |
| Egypt vs Iran (J1) | EGY 1.3 — IRN 0.9 | Egypt wins 1-0 |
| Belgium vs Egypt (J2) | BEL 1.6 — EGY 1.2 | Belgium wins 2-1 |
| Iran vs New Zealand (J2) | IRN 1.5 — NZL 0.5 | Iran wins 2-0 |
| Belgium vs Iran (J3) | BEL 1.4 — IRN 0.8 | Belgium wins 1-0 |
| Egypt vs New Zealand (J3) | EGY 2.2 — NZL 0.4 | Egypt wins 3-0 |
Projections based on qualifying cycle form, updated FIFA rankings, and systems analysis.
Projected standings
| Pos. | Nation | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Belgium | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 2nd | Egypt | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3rd | Iran | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 4th | New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Conclusion: Belgium leads but Salah threatens
Belgium has the obligation to qualify first. Historical pressure on this generation will push them to higher-than-usual performance, provided De Bruyne and Lukaku are available. Egypt and Iran will dispute second place, with Salah as the differentiator favoring the Egyptians.
Iran can complicate Belgium in a tight match but lacks the goals to aspire to qualify. New Zealand will experience its World Cup as an achievement.
Final prediction: Belgium qualifies as group winners. Egypt as second, propelled by Salah. The Belgian golden generation has one final chance to prove it can perform in tournaments.
More about Belgium at World Cup 2026 | Egypt at World Cup 2026 | World Cup 2026 Hub