The 2026 World Cup arrives with 48 teams. That means one thing: chaos is guaranteed. And chaos is good. Chaos produces historic moments, epic stories, and the systematic destruction of every pundit’s predictions.

Here’s who will cause upsets — and who will disappoint. Save this until July 19 and come back to tell me how wrong I was.

5 Teams That Will Shock Everyone

1. Morocco reaches the semifinals. Again.

Qatar 2022 was no accident. Morocco has a generation of players competing in Europe’s top leagues, a world-class defensive system, and the ability to perform under pressure — as they showed by eliminating Spain and Portugal.

In a 48-team World Cup hosted in North America, with more accessible groups for African sides, Morocco can reach the semis again. And this time, they arrive with more experience.

2. Japan will eliminate a European powerhouse

Japan has come dangerously close to causing major damage in the last two World Cups. They have pace, tactical discipline, and the ability to surprise opponents who don’t prepare properly for them.

At some point in this tournament, Japan will win a match they’re not supposed to win. Guaranteed.

3. Colombia can go deep

Colombian football is in one of its best generational moments in decades. They have midfield creativity, goals up front, and the physical intensity to compete in knockout rounds. Their CONMEBOL qualifying campaign was solid.

If they land in a manageable group — more likely with 48 teams — they can do real damage in the later rounds.

4. The USA is playing at home and they’re not what you think

Everyone says the US is the host that never advances. But this is the first time the USA arrives at a World Cup with players genuinely competitive in Europe’s top leagues. These are not the 1994 US.

Playing at home, with crowd support, and with players shaped by the winning culture of big European clubs, they can reach the quarterfinals for the first time. And if they get there, they’re dangerous.

5. Turkey: the team nobody is watching

Turkey has one of the most talented generations in their history playing across Europe’s major leagues right now. They’re not favourites. Nobody is tracking them. That gives them a psychological advantage. They could be this tournament’s breakout team.

Check the Turkey national team profile to follow them.

3 Teams That Will Disappoint

1. Belgium (if they even qualify)

The Golden Generation is over. De Bruyne, Lukaku and company are no longer in their peak years. Belgium has spent a decade being “the great favourite who never won anything” — and there’s no sign of that tradition ending.

2. Italy isn’t ready for this competition

Italian football is still in generational reconstruction. Recent tournaments have shown an inconsistent side that relies too heavily on defensive solidity — in a competition where that’s no longer enough against the best.

3. Argentina without Messi at 100%

If Messi arrives at the 2026 World Cup at Qatar 2022 levels, Argentina are finalists. If he arrives at 38, carrying the weight of an extraordinary career, he can’t shoulder the same load. And Argentina without a dominant Messi is a very good team — but not the clear favourite they were in Qatar.

Football’s beauty is that we can all be wrong. But if at least three of these predictions don’t come true by July 2026, I’ll eat my words. Publicly.

See the teams qualified for World Cup 2026 and build your own analysis.

The Provocateur. Strong opinions, no apologies.