FIFA expanded the World Cup to 48 teams and sold it as “inclusion” and “globalization of football.” The reality is different: the 48-team format is a surprise-generating machine that will eliminate at least one of the big favorites before the quarterfinals. And FIFA doesn’t care, because upsets generate audience.

More matches, more fatigue, more accidents

A 2026 World Cup champion will need to win seven matches in approximately 30 days. Three group stage matches plus four knockout rounds. The number is the same as before, but the context changes radically. With 48 teams split into 12 groups of four, the group stage will be shorter and more intense. Three matches in nine days to decide who advances.

The problem? Logistics. The venues are spread across the United States, Mexico and Canada. A team could play in Miami, fly to Dallas and close the group stage in Seattle. These are continental distances, not European ones. The travel between 2026 World Cup venues is comparable to playing a match in Lisbon, the next in Moscow and the third in Stockholm. That didn’t happen in Qatar, where everything was 30 minutes by car.

The favorites — Argentina, France, Spain — will arrive at the knockout rounds with more miles in their legs and more accumulated jet lag than in any previous World Cup. And that takes its toll.

The group stage: the minefield

In the previous format, with 32 teams and groups of four, favorites had margin. You could lose a match and qualify with 6 points. In 2026, the math is identical — three matches, two advance — but the quality of opponents is more unpredictable.

With 48 teams, there are sides who have never played a World Cup or haven’t been in one for decades. Is that good for favorites? In theory, yes. In practice, no. Teams with nothing to lose are the most dangerous. They have no pressure, no expectations, and they play as if it’s the final of their lives — because for many of them, it is.

Iceland in 2016 drew with Argentina and knocked out England. Saudi Arabia in 2022 beat Argentina. Costa Rica in 2014 knocked Italy and England out of the group. Upsets in the group stage aren’t exceptions — they’re the norm. And with 48 teams, there are more opportunities for them to happen.

Knockout rounds from the last 32: sudden death

What changes most with 48 teams isn’t the group stage — it’s what comes after. The 32 teams that advance from the groups go directly into a straight knockout bracket from the round of 32. More knockout rounds mean more matches where one goal, one penalty or one refereeing error sends you home.

In the 32-team format, favorites had three group matches to find their rhythm and confidence before facing knockout games. In 2026, the margin for error disappears faster. A bad day in the round of 32 — maybe against an African or Asian side playing the match of their lives — and the favorite goes home.

The data backs this up: in the last three World Cups, at least one top-5 favorite was eliminated before the quarterfinals. Germany in 2018 and 2022. Spain in 2014 and 2022. Brazil in 2022. The 48-team format didn’t invent upsets, but it gave them more room to happen.

Physical recovery: the variable nobody calculates

A team reaching the 2026 World Cup final will have played seven matches in a month, with intercontinental travel between each one. Sports science is clear: fatigue accumulation in those conditions reduces performance by 8% to 12%. For a team that relies on intensity — like Spain with their high press or Argentina with their counter-press — that performance drop is the difference between winning and losing.

Squads with depth — France, Germany, England — should have an advantage here. But the reality is that national team coaches rarely rotate at World Cups. Deschamps will play his starting eleven all seven matches. Scaloni will play Messi whenever he can walk. Squad depth only matters if you use it, and no manager has the guts to rotate at a World Cup.

The prediction: the favorite that falls

I don’t know which of the big favorites will be the victim of the format. But at least one of Argentina, France or Spain will go home before the quarterfinals. The 48-team format, North American logistics, June heat and straight knockout from the round of 32 create the perfect storm for the biggest upset of the century at a World Cup.

FIFA knows this will happen. And deep down, they want it to. Because an Argentina knocked out in the round of 32 generates more headlines, more clicks and more debate than a predictable final between the usual suspects. The 2026 World Cup isn’t designed for the best team to win. It’s designed for everything to happen. And that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

Discover which 5 teams won’t survive the group stage and why Germany can win the tournament in silence. Everything about the World Cup 2026 format and more at the World Cup 2026 hub.