On June 12, 2026, hours after Mexico raise the curtain at the Azteca, the other major host enters the stage. The United States welcome Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, the most expensive stadium ever built, before what will be the largest audience football has ever had on American soil.

Group D brings together four teams with very different profiles: a host nation under pressure to establish soccer as a mainstream sport, a South American side with historic grit, an Oceanian-Asian team with World Cup experience, and an emerging European power with talent to burn. None of these teams are unbeatable. None are disposable.

United States: the most public exam in their history

For American soccer, this World Cup is not just a tournament — it is a referendum. Decades of investment in MLS, in youth academies, in exporting players to European leagues, all converge at this moment. The current generation has more players at elite European clubs than any previous group: Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A.

But a squad full of individual talent does not guarantee World Cup results. The United States need to show tactical cohesion and the ability to impose their game in high-pressure matches — something they struggled with in Qatar 2022, where they fell in the Round of 16 against the Netherlands without putting up much resistance.

The opener against Paraguay in Los Angeles is a test they should, on paper, pass. But World Cups are not played on paper, and the pressure of a first match as hosts has unsettled teams with far more experience than this one.

Paraguay: Guarani grit looking for another big moment

Paraguay know what it means to compete at a World Cup. Quarterfinalists in South Africa 2010, with that unforgettable squad of Villar, Cardozo and Santa Cruz that knocked out Japan before falling to Spain. Round of 16 in 1998, 2002 and 2006. Paraguayan football has a World Cup pedigree that many underestimate.

Qualification for 2026 came through the South American qualifiers, the most demanding qualifying competition in the world. Surviving that 18-match marathon against Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia already speaks volumes about the squad’s mental resilience.

Paraguay will not dazzle with exhibition football. What they bring is defensive solidity, aggression in the duels, and the ability to compete against any opponent without an inferiority complex. In a group where the favorite is the host nation, that underdog mentality can be more dangerous than it appears.

Australia: steady on the global stage

Australia are making their sixth World Cup appearance, a notable consistency for a team that for decades was isolated from the competitive pathways of World Cup qualifying. The Socceroos have been at five of the last six editions, showing in each that they can compete at the highest level, even if rarely with spectacular results.

In Qatar 2022, Australia surprised many by reaching the Round of 16 — their best result since 2006 — with a side that combined defensive organization with the physical intensity that characterizes Australian sport. That recent World Cup experience is an asset that should not be underestimated.

The challenge for the Socceroos is squad depth. When the level of opposition rises, the options off the bench become thinner. In a group with three quality rivals, managing workloads across the three matchdays will be critical.

Turkey: the team with the most untapped potential

Turkey are the most fascinating unknown quantity in Group D. A team with players at major European clubs, one that has competed well at recent European Championships — semifinalists in 2024 — but whose relationship with the World Cup has been intermittent.

Turkish football produces talent with consistency: creative midfielders, physical defenders, attackers with flair. What has historically been missing is the regularity to translate that talent into sustained results in long tournaments. The 2002 World Cup semifinal in Japan-Korea, with a third-place finish, remains the high-water mark of Turkey’s World Cup history.

If Turkey can find the balance between attacking verve and the defensive discipline required at a tournament of this magnitude, they could be the team that springs the group’s biggest surprise. But that conditional “if” has gone unresolved for years.

What to expect from Group D

The United States start as favorites due to home advantage and the talent in their squad, but the margin over the rest is not wide. Turkey have the credentials to challenge for top spot, and Paraguay are exactly the kind of awkward opponent who can ruin any host nation’s opening night.

Australia, with their experience and competitive mindset, will not be easy prey for anyone either. This is a group where the difference between finishing first and finishing third could come down to a single goal, a penalty, or a refereeing decision.

SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles will be the epicenter of a group that promises to be decided on the final matchday. And when four teams arrive at the closing fixtures still alive, the World Cup shows its very best.

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